Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 0.053204 0.060458 0.068572 0.078364 0.089920 0.103191 0.119688
2026-01-25 0.042405 0.051396 0.062289 0.076609 0.095159 0.118690 0.151303
2026-02-01 0.034004 0.043470 0.055732 0.073086 0.097514 0.131464 0.183670
2026-02-08 0.029014 0.038975 0.052718 0.073605 0.105538 0.154277 0.238004
2026-02-15 0.025062 0.035214 0.050059 0.074186 0.114144 0.181119 0.310226
2026-02-22 0.022105 0.032391 0.048278 0.075833 0.125237 0.216394 0.415144
2026-03-01 0.019588 0.029824 0.046448 0.077102 0.136449 0.256967 0.555753
2026-03-08 0.017074 0.026859 0.043460 0.075765 0.142798 0.291630 0.709698
2026-03-15 0.014474 0.023361 0.038971 0.070697 0.140401 0.307320 0.830820
2026-03-22 0.013060 0.021704 0.037498 0.071265 0.150661 0.359182 1.111747
2026-03-29 0.012040 0.020598 0.036866 0.073494 0.165938 0.434136 1.569221
2026-04-05 0.010990 0.019282 0.035604 0.074088 0.177712 0.507932 2.145592
2026-04-12 0.010029 0.018027 0.034309 0.074479 0.189901 0.595248 2.986473
2026-04-19 0.009025 0.016551 0.032309 0.072705 0.195474 0.665581 3.931423
2026-04-26 0.008042 0.014992 0.029885 0.069303 0.194931 0.713604 4.899645
2026-05-03 0.007443 0.014156 0.028954 0.069710 0.207652 0.835797 7.071215
2026-05-10 0.006917 0.013409 0.028111 0.070188 0.221300 0.981644 10.446777
2026-05-17 0.006505 0.012854 0.027639 0.071671 0.240035 1.184969 16.569548
2026-05-24 0.006117 0.012305 0.027090 0.072808 0.258494 1.420588 26.776761
2026-05-31 0.005659 0.011540 0.025876 0.071524 0.266051 1.597578 39.382266
2026-06-07 0.005102 0.010486 0.023763 0.066769 0.255297 1.617390 47.407615
2026-06-14 0.004817 0.010046 0.023219 0.067275 0.271071 1.906987 80.559550
2026-06-21 0.004615 0.009783 0.023112 0.069332 0.296757 2.366693 163.781169